What Drove Down Brazil’s Emissions (and Why Standing Forests Are Our Best Climate Tool)
The country’s emissions fell for the third consecutive year, and almost the entire drop came from one place: the forest.
Brazil emitted 6% less greenhouse gases in 2025 than in 2024, according to Seeg, the emissions estimation system of the Observatório do Clima. It is the lowest level in eight years and the third consecutive annual decline.
The good news has a clear reason: deforestation fell across all biomes, especially in the Amazon and the Cerrado. In this article, we show where Brazil’s emissions come from, what has changed over the past three years, and why keeping the forest standing remains the most efficient way for the country to meet its climate targets.
Where Brazil’s emissions come from
Unlike most countries, where burning fossil fuels dominates, in Brazil the largest source of emissions is land-use change: the conversion of native vegetation into pasture, cropland, or urban areas—in other words, deforestation.
Seeg/Observatório do Clima, via Reset (10/21/2026) · 2025 gross emissions
This means Brazil has a rare advantage: it can cut a large share of its emissions by protecting forests, without relying solely on costly transitions in industry or energy.
Three consecutive years of decline
Gross emissions fell by 7.5% in 2023, 12.7% in 2024, and 6% in 2025. Combined, these reductions reach 26% over the period, according to Seeg.
The result reverses the previous cycle. Between 2019 and 2022, deforestation surged and pushed emissions upward. Over the past three years, deforestation control moved in the opposite direction, with declines recorded across all states and biomes.
There is also an important detail: a forest does not merely stop emitting when preserved—it also removes carbon from the atmosphere. In 2025, regenerating vegetation and protected areas, such as Indigenous lands and conservation units, removed 650 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. After deducting these removals, the country’s net emissions stood at 1.41 billion tonnes.
The rest of the economy did not follow suit
While land use drove its emissions down, other sectors remained flat or rose in 2025:
- Energy: up 1.2%, driven by higher diesel and gasoline consumption in transport and by the use of gas-fired thermal power plants, which caused electricity generation emissions to rise by 6%.
- Waste: up 3.6%, the highest increase among sectors, linked to disposal in landfills and open dumps as well as sewage treatment.
- Agriculture: virtually stable (down 0.1%), as the increase in crop farming was offset by a reduction in livestock.
- Industrial processes: stable, with a slight increase of 0.2%.
In other words, Brazil reduced its emissions almost entirely through forests, which is why the regulated carbon market, the SBCE—currently being regulated—targets precisely the energy and industry sectors: they will need to start contributing as well.
Are we on track to meet the target?
Almost. Brazil did not meet the net emissions limit set for 2025 in its climate target (the NDC, the commitment assumed under the Paris Agreement), but it came close, and the trend is moving in the right direction.
| Year | Net emissions (billion tCO2e) | NDC target (billion tCO2e) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.41 (measured) | 1.32 | 6% above the limit |
| 2026 | 1.22 (Seeg estimate) | no annual target cited | declining |
| 2030 | to be determined | 1.20 | within reach, if the trend continues |
According to Seeg’s coordinator, the estimate for 2026 places the country in the range where it needs to be to meet the 2030 target. However, the Observatório do Clima warns that this trajectory depends on maintaining efforts to combat deforestation, regardless of who governs the country from 2027 onward.
Why the standing forest is Brazil’s best climate tool
Seeg’s figures leave a clear lesson: in Brazil, no other action cuts as many emissions as quickly as halting deforestation. Land-use change remains the country’s largest source of emissions, and that is precisely where the reduction occurred.
The challenge is sustaining this outcome. Law enforcement and public policy are essential, but they depend on government priorities and budgets. That is where REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) projects come in: they turn preserved forest into verified carbon credits, and the sale of those credits finances monitoring, surveillance, and local income alternatives within the territory itself. It is a private, long-term source of funding that helps keep the forest standing even when the political landscape shifts.
At Canopée Ambiental, we develop independently certified REDD+ projects in the Amazon so that every avoided tonne is measured, verified, and communicated with confidence. For companies, purchasing these credits is a direct way to support Brazil’s primary climate lever.
Want to know how REDD+ credits can fit into your company’s climate strategy? Speak with the Canopée team.
Source: article Brasil corta emissões, mas conta ainda não fecha fora das florestas, Reset, October 21, 2026, with data from Seeg/Observatório do Clima.